Gold Prices Surpass Key Milestone Amid Market Volatility Ahead of Lunar New Year
On February 15, 2026, global and local gold markets reached a key point. Gold passed the $5,000 mark per ounce. SJC gold bars in Vietnam climbed by 2 million VND per ounce. They closed at 181 million VND per ounce just before the Lunar New Year break.
Global Gold Market Dynamics
Spot gold hit $5,043 per ounce on the last trading day of the week. In New York, March 2026 gold futures reached about $5,047 per ounce. Earlier, prices stayed near $5,000 but then dropped by 3% on Thursday. This fall makes some experts think that gold still needs time to firm up. Michael Brown, a senior market analyst at Pepperstone, called Thursday’s drop “an unusual move with no clear cause” and said that more weighing of prices is needed before a new trend grows.
Inflation and Interest Rates: Key Influencers
Gold rose above $5,000 after U.S. inflation came in softer than expected. In January, the inflation rate was 2.4% year-on-year. This rate was lower than December’s 2.7% and under the 2.5% forecast. Lower inflation makes investors hope that the U.S. central bank may cut rates. Still, market forecasts from the CME Group show that no rate cuts are likely before June 2026. Investors now watch U.S. economic numbers and central bank remarks for clearer signals.
Impact of Stock Market and External Factors
Gold often acts as a safe spot when markets shake. Yet, some may sell their gold to cover market calls or get cash in stress times. The U.S. stock market, seen in the S&P 500 index, struggles to pass 7,000 points. Fears of a slowdown in technology stocks also matter. These factors make gold’s price move hard to predict in the near term.
Domestic Market Trends in Vietnam
In Vietnam, gold trading ended with strong gains before the Lunar New Year. On February 14, SJC gold bars traded between 178 million and 181 million VND per ounce. This price shows a 2 million VND rise from the day before and a 1.7 million VND gain compared to the previous week. Similarly, SJC gold rings went up by 2 million VND per tael, holding between 177.5 and 180.5 million VND per tael. Major gold sellers like Doji and Bao Tin Minh Chau kept rates steady for gold rings, which signals a firm market before the holiday break.
Market Outlook and Analyst Commentary
Keeping gold above $5,000 is a key test. If prices hold this high, some experts see a rise toward the $5,050–$5,100 range. If they fall below $5,000, prices may near $4,900 per ounce. Bart Melek, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, mentioned that Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chairman adds to the many challenges about rate views. He noted that while some worries have eased, factors like changing U.S. economic numbers, surprise moves in inflation, and lower cash flows in Asia during the Lunar New Year still stir the market. Melek warned that even with strong first-quarter prices near $5,000, the Fed may not allow higher inflation for growth. Without a big change in policy, a sharp gold surge seems unlikely soon. He also saw that investors might soon take profits as speculative moves slow and more investors build positions.
Conclusion
The rise in gold prices shows its steady role in uncertain times. As world inflation data, central bank moves, and other market signals shift, gold stays sensitive to these factors. The local market in Vietnam mirrors these global moves. Investors will watch the next months for clearer trends as new economic figures shape central bank actions.
